PCinOz
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Post by PCinOz on Jan 28, 2019 0:43:05 GMT -5
I'm starting to watch some of the day 3 QB's. I've already done a full review of Easton Stick but will post that last in the guys I'm doing. First up, Boise State thrower Brett Rypien. Brett Rypien (Boise St)My NFL Comparison – CJ Beathard Games used from 2018 – vs BYU, Wyoming, San Diego State, Oklahoma State, Mountain West championship game vs Fresno State Rypien is an interesting study. He’s a completely different QB when under pressure to when there is none. Doesn’t have a great awareness of pressure. Works exclusively from the pistol/gun. From all reports and what can be seen, Rypien has very good intangibles and leaderships skills. His setup and throwing mechanics are pretty good and has a quick release. Has little mobility for a guy his size. Doesn’t use his feet in the pocket unless the play is designed to move him. Not a great feel in the pocket and doesn’t slide to avoid pressure. He has great short and short/medium accuracy but once passes in the air get increasingly beyond 10 yards it’s an adventure. Accuracy and touch are all over the place over 10 yards. He does go through progressions well, but his decision making when going through those progressions is then called into question. He checks down a tonne to RB’s even when on a number of occasions he has earlier reads open. To me he seems a product of the Boise system - the shallow cross, quick out and RB dump off as the staple. His 15-yard TD throw vs Wyoming was an excellent throw under pressure and into coverage - one of the few seen in these games studied. His game vs SD State showed all his shortcomings as passer, inability to recognise, slide or escape pressure, threw multiple picks on poor throws, and took sacks that could have been avoided if he moved in the pocket. His accuracy was all over the place in that game. Compare that to NSDU QB Easton Stick’s game vs the same opponent last season with NCAA Division 1 personnel around him, for example. His East West Shrine game performance was more encouraging after now (finally) watching that game, but the game that sticks with me the most is the Mountain West championship game vs Fresno State at home. Go watch his throws in that game here: Even his TD in that game was on a poor throw that went straight to a defender in the EZ for what should have been an easy interception, just to see the defender let it go through his hands and into the receiver’s hands behind him for the score. I get a lot of the love and emotion for this guy on the Redskins twitterverse because he is related to Redskins SB winning QB Mark Rypien but to me he needs tonne of development to even be in an NFL starting QB discussion. Other research articles looked at: mattwaldmanrsp.com/2018/09/02/mark-schofields-rsp-scouting-lens-brett-rypien-and-full-body-manipulation/There will be more in-depth analysis articles in coming couple of months that I'll add to this thread as they are published. |
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Scotskin
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Post by Scotskin on Jan 28, 2019 6:04:40 GMT -5
The add on is that the scions of famous players can be maxxed out as prospects due to the early adoption of them as potential stars and they get on the football camp circuit very quickly.
I'd agree with your breakdown from my superficial take of watching the occasional Boise State game, especially the formulaic nature of the Spread which has rhythm throws on each play.
I get the feeling this is Coach Gruden's time to step up, he needs to find a top 16 franchise QB for his team and develop them as quickly as he did with Dalton.
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feeshta
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Post by feeshta on Jan 29, 2019 5:15:33 GMT -5
You guys probably already know that I am a stickler for the little things when it comes to evaluating QBs. If they can't instinctively work the pocket and accurately hit short routes ON TIME, then I wouldn't even bother with trying to develop them further, barring absolutely exceptional aspects in other areas. I just feel that you need to have that baseline skillset in order to be at all effective while learning the rest, which really needs to take place on the field rather than on the practice field. I would pass.
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Post by raypetty on Jan 29, 2019 5:20:54 GMT -5
Thinking with O' Connell down in Mobile with Allen/Smith, Skins pick a QB with 1st or 2nd pick. Just a guess.
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Karl
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Post by Karl on Jan 29, 2019 9:15:03 GMT -5
"Product of the System" is huge. A coach picks a QB and either builds the system to them or they fit into an already established system.
Qualities I look for, and seldom wrong...
- The ability to throw to the 'windows.' The QB throws to where the rec'r will be and out of trouble. I noticed a terrible throw where Brett threw the Rec'r into a big hit (though could have been a pick 6 just as easy)
- Grace under pressure - I like to see the QB not rattled at all.
- Take what the defense gives - I hate to see forced throws. You will be directed by the coach to take those risks at times.
- Ball Placement - I like to see good throws on the forced plays where really the Rec'r has a shot.
- Knowledge - I like to see the QB use the subtle weapons.. look defenders off, voice inflection at the snap, a good pump fake, carry out the fake hand off or fake pass (RPO) and lastly, a good grasp of the playbook and how the coach wants to call the plays.
Any of those skills will translate to the Pro's. But good coaching/mentoring is also important at the pro level too. I've seen some good talent blown by awful coaching/player development.
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kaiser
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Post by kaiser on Jan 29, 2019 10:32:14 GMT -5
The add on is that the scions of famous players can be maxxed out as prospects due to the early adoption of them as potential stars and they get on the football camp circuit very quickly. I'd agree with your breakdown from my superficial take of watching the occasional Boise State game, especially the formulaic nature of the Spread which has rhythm throws on each play. I get the feeling this is Coach Gruden's time to step up, he needs to find a top 16 franchise QB for his team and develop them as quickly as he did with Dalton. I think this is the wrong year for drafting a QB high. Next year (Herbert, Fromm, Franks? Tua?) and the year (Tua, Lawrence?) after have some excellent prospects |
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Post by MikeLowery on Jan 29, 2019 10:52:19 GMT -5
The add on is that the scions of famous players can be maxxed out as prospects due to the early adoption of them as potential stars and they get on the football camp circuit very quickly. I'd agree with your breakdown from my superficial take of watching the occasional Boise State game, especially the formulaic nature of the Spread which has rhythm throws on each play. I get the feeling this is Coach Gruden's time to step up, he needs to find a top 16 franchise QB for his team and develop them as quickly as he did with Dalton. I think this is the wrong year for drafting a QB high. Next year (Herbert, Fromm, Franks? Tua?) and the year (Tua, Lawrence?) after have some excellent prospects Amen. I wouldn't take a QB at all this year. Or I would take one in the 3rd/4th round and name him the starter the night of the draft and see what you got. |
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Terry
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Post by Terry on Jan 29, 2019 13:15:27 GMT -5
As far as I'm concerned, waiting for some perfect QB class is the worst thing we could do. Even if the class is all that, it's still likely that only 1 or 2 of everybody's sure-fire prospects will end up meeting expectations and it's just as likely that a couple of later round picks are will exceed them (translation: it's pretty much a crap shoot).
If Gruden thinks there is a QB coming out this year that he can turn into a decent pro then I don't care where we draft him. We should then do the same thing next year and keep doing so every year until we have a starting QB and a solid development/backup.
We've dicked around too long to be choosy now.
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PCinOz
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Post by PCinOz on Jan 29, 2019 14:14:41 GMT -5
Point is you should draft a QB every year (somewhere in the draft) until you have two good ones.
Right now we have'nt even got one.
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Carnack
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Post by Carnack on Jan 29, 2019 15:28:37 GMT -5
There is a huge difference in drafting a QB to start and drafting a QB to develop from the Draft valuation perspective. At SOME point you have to have realistic expectations on what you have to work with and what you can accomplish.
In this Draft there are a lot of solid QB's that are development worthy in the NFL. There are few QB's that will start in 2019 that possess enough spit and polish to succeed at the next level sans a significant amount of development. Neither point suggest you should not draft a QB. It suggest you should have an idea what you can accomplish.
I am with PC in that we need to continue drafting QB's each and every year until we are on terra firma. I bring four QB's to camp every year, ideally ones we have drafted and developed and let them all compete. This year we should look to the developmental QB, maybe one a little higher in the Draft if the talent is there, to work behind Colt - with Alex in the QB room. I do not see a better alternative and I really don't want us to reach for this position if the talent is not there.
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kaiser
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Post by kaiser on Jan 29, 2019 20:26:49 GMT -5
As far as I'm concerned, waiting for some perfect QB class is the worst thing we could do. Even if the class is all that, it's still likely that only 1 or 2 of everybody's sure-fire prospects will end up meeting expectations and it's just as likely that a couple of later round picks are will exceed them (translation: it's pretty much a crap shoot). If Gruden thinks there is a QB coming out this year that he can turn into a decent pro then I don't care where we draft him. We should then do the same thing next year and keep doing so every year until we have a starting QB and a solid development/backup. We've dicked around too long to be choosy now. 2011 says hi |
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PCinOz
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Post by PCinOz on Jan 29, 2019 21:14:41 GMT -5
As far as I'm concerned, waiting for some perfect QB class is the worst thing we could do. Even if the class is all that, it's still likely that only 1 or 2 of everybody's sure-fire prospects will end up meeting expectations and it's just as likely that a couple of later round picks are will exceed them (translation: it's pretty much a crap shoot). If Gruden thinks there is a QB coming out this year that he can turn into a decent pro then I don't care where we draft him. We should then do the same thing next year and keep doing so every year until we have a starting QB and a solid development/backup. We've dicked around too long to be choosy now. 2011 says hi Actually I think the outcome will be more like 2012. The best of the class taken early, three more picks in round one that will hang around but will not be that good, second rounders a bust, but the money starts in round 3 onwards - Wilson, Foles, Cousins. Thats why Day 3 is value for money in this QB class. |
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kaiser
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Post by kaiser on Jan 29, 2019 21:37:34 GMT -5
Actually I think the outcome will be more like 2012. The best of the class taken early, three more picks in round one that will hang around but will not be that good, second rounders a bust, but the money starts in round 3 onwards - Wilson, Foles, Cousins. Thats why Day 3 is value for money in this QB class. I don't see a Luck or RG3, let alone a Wilson / Cousins / Foles. All the prospects here require a LOT of work. I'm seeing '11 - Cam, then maybe an Andy Dalton / Tyrod Taylor. |
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SkinsFan67
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Post by SkinsFan67 on Jan 29, 2019 23:45:55 GMT -5
Thinking with O' Connell down in Mobile with Allen/Smith, Skins pick a QB with 1st or 2nd pick. Just a guess. He's the OC, not the QB coach. He could just as easily be scouting out OL, WR and TE as he is QBs...though I'm sure he's looking at all the offensive players. I would imagine a QB is desired at some point during the draft, even if it isn't the 1st round. |
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Post by raypetty on Jan 30, 2019 0:07:55 GMT -5
Thinking with O' Connell down in Mobile with Allen/Smith, Skins pick a QB with 1st or 2nd pick. Just a guess. He's the OC, not the QB coach. He could just as easily be scouting out OL, WR and TE as he is QBs...though I'm sure he's looking at all the offensive players. I would imagine a QB is desired at some point during the draft, even if it isn't the 1st round. Correct and agree. I think QB comes in Round 1 or 2 and Rypien is not the choice as he will be selected, IMO no earlier than the 5th round. |
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PCinOz
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Post by PCinOz on Jan 30, 2019 2:47:28 GMT -5
Actually I think the outcome will be more like 2012. The best of the class taken early, three more picks in round one that will hang around but will not be that good, second rounders a bust, but the money starts in round 3 onwards - Wilson, Foles, Cousins. Thats why Day 3 is value for money in this QB class. I don't see a Luck or RG3, let alone a Wilson / Cousins / Foles. All the prospects here require a LOT of work. I'm seeing '11 - Cam, then maybe an Andy Dalton / Tyrod Taylor. I'm talking from a post draft perspective not pre-draft. One will turn out (like Luck), I can see the 2 of the top 5 taken hanging around - even having a good season - but ending up disappointments (like RGIII, Tannehill) and 2 being flops from the outset (like Weeden and Osweiler), then the best of the rest coming from Round 3 onwards (the 3 x I mentioned above). No one thought Cousins or Foles would be anything but backups early on remember. They didn't get a real shot at any starting opportunity until injuries hit, Foles in his rookie year when Vick went down, Cousins in year 3 when RGIII broke his ankle and I'd expect a couple from this group to do the same, and probably turn out similar type players. In that 2011 draft there was nothing between Dalton/Kaep at the top of round 2 and Taylor in Round 6, then nothing after that. I expect to see at least a couple of decent NFL backups and a couple of starters at some point out of the 8-9 Round 3 -7 guys in this draft. Thats where I want to target a QB here. |
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Karl
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Post by Karl on Jan 30, 2019 6:40:04 GMT -5
It's kind of an argument of taking BPA (not for position)
The Redskins have got to get play makers.
I liked how they were adding picks trading down, but now they need to do some BPA strategy.
Pick the best and force competition.
Re: QB, they will pick one. It's a question of where.
Using Grier as an example and someone I've watched up close and personal, though I am not saying pick him..
He's a guy, like a few of the others, that has some tools you can develop.
The one thing I like is his commitment. He's not a Peyton as far as studying the game, but he will know the playbook and offense very well.
He throws in the windows pretty well.
on 50-50 balls, the placement is ok.
The knock on arm strength is complete bs.
He is a risk-taker: This is good as you need that but you have to temper that also.
But I would like to see a guy like this developed. Compete in training camp, mentored well, and given limited adequate shots in pre-season.
I think if you developed this type, you can have a decent starter in the long haul.
But I like PC's thought too, pick one up every year until you have one that catches fire. You can always trade one ala Jimmy G.
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Terry
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Post by Terry on Jan 30, 2019 10:22:51 GMT -5
Actually I think the outcome will be more like 2012. The best of the class taken early, three more picks in round one that will hang around but will not be that good, second rounders a bust, but the money starts in round 3 onwards - Wilson, Foles, Cousins. Thats why Day 3 is value for money in this QB class. I don't see a Luck or RG3, let alone a Wilson / Cousins / Foles. All the prospects here require a LOT of work. I'm seeing '11 - Cam, then maybe an Andy Dalton / Tyrod Taylor. I disagree. If you are a Redskins coach/FO and you think you see a Wilson / Cousins / Foles in this draft, you don't wait around for some idealized optimum draft slot, you take him as high as you can comfortably go, even if it's the first round. Other teams might have the luxury of waiting until later/late rounds, but we don't. |
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Carnack
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Post by Carnack on Jan 30, 2019 10:56:17 GMT -5
The same can be said for any position, Terry. A reach is a reach.
I think is safe to say that this team will look at Colt McCoy as the starter in 2019. Any QB added to this roster will, and I believe one will, will be tasked to learn the offense and develop. That is what the QB talent-base of this Draft indicates from just about everybody with an opinion on the topic of the 2019 QB Class. That's not a bad thing.
I am with Karl that this Draft is a BAP Draft on Day One. The only way I trade out of Round One is to secure another Round One selection in 2020 with more picks in Rounds two and three this year. I think we need to move our Draft coinage forward a year and be prepared to look for a starter at QB in the Draft then. I'm all but certain there are a half dozen other teams looking at this Draft and the next in the same light so it will be interesting to see who makes the bold move in 2019 for the 2020 QB Draft lottery.
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Terry
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Post by Terry on Jan 30, 2019 12:37:27 GMT -5
I think a reach is in the eye of the beholder. If we reach for a QB in the first round who pundits peg as a 3rd rounder, and he turns into a starting QB for us, then where is the reach?
Sure, we can believe the pundits, get cute, and hold out until a later round, but we could also lose a guy who could have helped us.
For a QB, for this team, there is no such thing as a reach if we are sure we are getting a potential eventual starter.
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Post by gilesfan on Jan 30, 2019 14:11:14 GMT -5
I like Rypien as a mid round pick if he's out there. He's the type of guy that throws with anticipation, which is needed in our version of the WCO. Maybe he's just a backup , but worth a shot.
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Post by Never Fail, All Hail on Jan 30, 2019 16:20:22 GMT -5
“Doesn’t use his feet in the pocket unless the play is designed to move him. Not a great feel in the pocket and doesn’t slide to avoid pressure.”
I don’t want Any QB who doesn’t have this skill. It’s arguably the most important skill to have in today’s NFL
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SkinsFan67
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Post by SkinsFan67 on Jan 30, 2019 23:14:33 GMT -5
I don't see a Luck or RG3, let alone a Wilson / Cousins / Foles. All the prospects here require a LOT of work. I'm seeing '11 - Cam, then maybe an Andy Dalton / Tyrod Taylor. I disagree. If you are a Redskins coach/FO and you think you see a Wilson / Cousins / Foles in this draft, you don't wait around for some idealized optimum draft slot, you take him as high as you can comfortably go, even if it's the first round. Other teams might have the luxury of waiting until later/late rounds, but we don't. If you see a Wilson/Cousins/Foles as they were viewed when and where they were drafted (as development QBs and backups) or as they turned out? If teams had seen franchise starting QBs, they would have been drafted in the 1st round instead of where they were drafted. Brady is the best example. If you look at Brady today, there are 32 teams that would have taken him #1 overall in '00, but no one had an inkling he would ever amount to anything, hence being taken in the 6th. The problem with taking a guy you grade as a day 2 QB at #15 is that you as a franchise are now committing to 3-4 years minimum to the kid regardless to how he plays because of the cost to draft him. If that guy sucks you have set the team back at least 5 years, and you have missed out on taking a blue chip prospect at another position that could help you much more than a mediocre to crappy QB you reached for. |
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Terry
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Post by Terry on Jan 31, 2019 13:21:02 GMT -5
That's not what I'm saying, '67. I'm not talking about retrospect.
What I am saying is that if our coaches think they see a guy who they can comfortably project as an eventual starter, then they need to ignore slotting and the mocks and the fans and the 'experts' and take him as high as they feel they can comfortably go without any risk of losing him. Because if they see it then it's likely than other teams do as well.
And because we are so QB poor, we need to add at least a round higher to any QB projection we might make. It sucks but that's where we are today.
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Carnack
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Post by Carnack on Jan 31, 2019 15:06:05 GMT -5
Yeah, but taking that approach is no guarantee either Terry.
There are a lot of ways to throw stuff at the wall, the Draft; Free Agency; PS poaching; laying of hands on Josh Johnson...
While I don't disagree with your point that we may be in a position where we may have to "reach a round", but I think even that needs to be within reason. The Draft is a heck of a lot more information driven than in years past. There is a lot more insight to these QB's now with guys like Wentz appearing at the top of the Draft with basically never being on National TV. The NFL talent evaluations have changed with BLEDSO too.
We may reach for a QB we like as you say, but I do expect that to be the exception rather than the rule.
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Post by sydneyunilions87 on Jan 31, 2019 15:10:51 GMT -5
Thinking with O' Connell down in Mobile with Allen/Smith, Skins pick a QB with 1st or 2nd pick. Just a guess. This is just due diligence. Perhaps they see something they like perhaps they don't. |
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kaiser
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Post by kaiser on Jan 31, 2019 18:09:28 GMT -5
That's not what I'm saying, '67. I'm not talking about retrospect. What I am saying is that if our coaches think they see a guy who they can comfortably project as an eventual starter, then they need to ignore slotting and the mocks and the fans and the 'experts' and take him as high as they feel they can comfortably go without any risk of losing him. Because if they see it then it's likely than other teams do as well. And because we are so QB poor, we need to add at least a round higher to any QB projection we might make. It sucks but that's where we are today. If he is 2+ years away from starting, do you take the guy over a starting CB? DE/OLB? OG? FS? |
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SkinsFan67
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Post by SkinsFan67 on Jan 31, 2019 21:25:24 GMT -5
That's not what I'm saying, '67. I'm not talking about retrospect. What I am saying is that if our coaches think they see a guy who they can comfortably project as an eventual starter, then they need to ignore slotting and the mocks and the fans and the 'experts' and take him as high as they feel they can comfortably go without any risk of losing him. Because if they see it then it's likely than other teams do as well. And because we are so QB poor, we need to add at least a round higher to any QB projection we might make. It sucks but that's where we are today. Just because we need to find our eventual starter, it doens't mean we should force it this year if we don't think the QB is a slam dunk. When you say "comfortably project as an eventual starter" what comes to mind is a guy like Bortles or Tannehill. Good enough to get you 6-7 wins a year, but never going to be the guy to take a team to the next level. And I don't want to waste 3-4-5 years on an ify QB we are reaching at least a round on because we wasted a 1st round pick on him. I'd still rather go BPA and get a blue chip prospect at another position at #15, really suck at QB next year (which probably means we get a top 5 pick in '20) and go for a much better QB prospect in '20. |
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Terry
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Post by Terry on Feb 1, 2019 13:23:26 GMT -5
That's not what I'm saying, '67. I'm not talking about retrospect. What I am saying is that if our coaches think they see a guy who they can comfortably project as an eventual starter, then they need to ignore slotting and the mocks and the fans and the 'experts' and take him as high as they feel they can comfortably go without any risk of losing him. Because if they see it then it's likely than other teams do as well. And because we are so QB poor, we need to add at least a round higher to any QB projection we might make. It sucks but that's where we are today. If he is 2+ years away from starting, do you take the guy over a starting CB? DE/OLB? OG? FS? We have no choice because of the position we are in currently. The draft can't have the same rules for every team due to circumstance, and in our case we need to be moving aggressively on a young QB or two. |
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Terry
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Post by Terry on Feb 1, 2019 13:31:48 GMT -5
That's not what I'm saying, '67. I'm not talking about retrospect. What I am saying is that if our coaches think they see a guy who they can comfortably project as an eventual starter, then they need to ignore slotting and the mocks and the fans and the 'experts' and take him as high as they feel they can comfortably go without any risk of losing him. Because if they see it then it's likely than other teams do as well. And because we are so QB poor, we need to add at least a round higher to any QB projection we might make. It sucks but that's where we are today. Just because we need to find our eventual starter, it doens't mean we should force it this year if we don't think the QB is a slam dunk. When you say "comfortably project as an eventual starter" what comes to mind is a guy like Bortles or Tannehill. Good enough to get you 6-7 wins a year, but never going to be the guy to take a team to the next level. And I don't want to waste 3-4-5 years on an ify QB we are reaching at least a round on because we wasted a 1st round pick on him. I'd still rather go BPA and get a blue chip prospect at another position at #15, really suck at QB next year (which probably means we get a top 5 pick in '20) and go for a much better QB prospect in '20. Right, but with the draft, selecting a sure thing QB is never guaranteed, regardless of the projected quality of any draft at that position. We could wait a year, suck even and get a top 5 pick, and put all our expectations and faith in landing a prized QB candidate next year... and then easily watch him bust. And we'd be just as far behind as we are now, with another 2 year window of sucking and drafting and developing and hoping for the best. It's just the nature of the beast. So let's get a QB this year, see what we have, and get a little bit of a head start. |
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